Comments on: WTF: No exit polls? http://punkassblog.com/2010/01/19/wtf-no-exit-polls/ Sun, 20 Nov 2011 04:59:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.3 By: Jad http://punkassblog.com/2010/01/19/wtf-no-exit-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-543904 Jad Thu, 21 Jan 2010 22:52:40 +0000 http://punkassblog.com/?p=4728#comment-543904 @Thene: <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/10/senate_poll_coakley_up_15_points/" rel="nofollow">Jan. 10 Boston Globe</a> gave the Dem +15%. That's the stated reason for no exit polls. I concede 538 is a better source, but that's not the point. If the difference between exit polls and election results are different by a statistically significant margin then there are, by definition, voting irregularities--even in indiana. Not having exit polls at all disallows any evidence of fraud *or* irregularities to be presented, which I regard as an absurd oversight at best. Based on the post, which side do you think I wanted to win? (bzzzzzt. neither, both candidates should be in prison.) @Thene: Jan. 10 Boston Globe gave the Dem +15%. That’s the stated reason for no exit polls. I concede 538 is a better source, but that’s not the point. If the difference between exit polls and election results are different by a statistically significant margin then there are, by definition, voting irregularities–even in indiana. Not having exit polls at all disallows any evidence of fraud *or* irregularities to be presented, which I regard as an absurd oversight at best. Based on the post, which side do you think I wanted to win? (bzzzzzt. neither, both candidates should be in prison.)

]]> By: Thene http://punkassblog.com/2010/01/19/wtf-no-exit-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-543725 Thene Thu, 21 Jan 2010 02:10:50 +0000 http://punkassblog.com/?p=4728#comment-543725 Errr, I'm not sure where you've been for the last few weeks but most polls have been predicting that the Dems would be the losers of this election all month. For an example, <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html" rel="nofollow">see this 538 post from a few days ago</a>. (538 is a distinctly left-leaning site and if you click around you'll see posts there that were hopefully questing for means by which Coakley could pull it out, which didn't happen.) Citing Zogby is cherrypicking, especially as he's known to be a <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings" rel="nofollow">slightly below average</a> pollster (even ignoring his online polls, which are terrible.) Did you allege electoral fraud when Obama unexpectedly won the presidential race in Indiana in 2008? And if not, why not? Because right now, you're making an accusation with no evidence and it looks like you're just saying it because the side you didn't like won, rather than because the side that one wouldn't expect to win won. Errr, I’m not sure where you’ve been for the last few weeks but most polls have been predicting that the Dems would be the losers of this election all month. For an example, see this 538 post from a few days ago. (538 is a distinctly left-leaning site and if you click around you’ll see posts there that were hopefully questing for means by which Coakley could pull it out, which didn’t happen.)

Citing Zogby is cherrypicking, especially as he’s known to be a slightly below average pollster (even ignoring his online polls, which are terrible.)

Did you allege electoral fraud when Obama unexpectedly won the presidential race in Indiana in 2008? And if not, why not? Because right now, you’re making an accusation with no evidence and it looks like you’re just saying it because the side you didn’t like won, rather than because the side that one wouldn’t expect to win won.

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