You take your home state. When you run for President, that’s a necessity. Even Mondale won Minnesota.
Of course, Al Gore didn’t win Tennessee back in 2000, did he? But at least he had the excuse of being out of Senatorial office for 8 years before then.
If she were the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton should be able to win New York. It already leans blue and she’s one of their own (in the loosest of terms, but still).
Arguably, though, Giuliani would be a problem. It appears he is:
The poll, by Siena College’s Research Institute, found the Republican Giuliani leading the former first lady 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters asked about a hypothetical 2008 presidential matchup.
Giuliani’s much more “New York” than Hillary, so that data isn’t necessarily the end of the world as far as her national campaign prospects.
This may be, though:
In another possible 2008 matchup, Republican Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona was favored by 46 percent of New York voters, compared to 42 percent for Democrat Clinton.
How any blue state could favor any Republican in 2008 boggles my mind. That Hillary’s blue state home would favor McCain over her leaves me speechless. If she’s the underdog in NY, how can we expect her to have a chance to win anywhere else? And how can a Democrat expect to win without New York’s electoral votes?
Fears over McCain’s invincibility seem justified. That’s why we need Al.
gah. i certainly hadn’t thought of McCain as invincible before, but that site and those numbers make a case. gah.
I really want Al too, but at this point I’m feeling a bit–how did someone put it?–like Lucy with the football, wrt the elections. i’m still recovering from ’04–face it, that was fucking traumatic.
well, we’ll see.
I have to say I don’t believe that for a minute. I’m from CT, not NY, but Hillary is pretty damn popular in NY. Giuliani was afraid to run against her for Senate this time because he new damn well there was no way he could have won. People are pissed about the war, sure, but Giuliani is an equally polarizing figure who’s wildly unpopular in a lot of circles, if he could have run for Mayor again before 9/11, he would have had a really hard time. Democrats aren’t going for Rudy over Hillary and he has enough problems with his own party (and there’s no way in hell he could win a national Republican primary, either). Yes, 9/11 made him more popular again, but a lot of the bloom is off that rose and the way he’s conducted himself since, using the tragedy for political purposes and sucking up to Bush, reminded people of why they didn’t like him in the first place. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of beating Hillary for either Senate or President in NY. Maybe it’s just too early to poll?
McCain would probably be a formidible candidate if he can overcome the hatred of Republican primary voters, and that’s looking possible. Still, he has a lot of negatives, like the fact that his personality really is kind of erratic and the fact that his bipartisan moderate pose is phony. If the Dems weren’t so useless, they could destroy him, but oh yeah.
I’m not a Hillary supporter, btw, I just have a lot of doubts about the Giuliani thing. I think Giuliani would be a strong national candidate for them (or more like a successful ticking time bomb with, like McCain, tons and tons of campaign ending negatives that the Dems would stupidly not exploit) I just don’t think he could win a national Republican primary and while he’d probably win a national general I doubt he’d beat Hillary in NY.
Until the dems cna assure that elecitons will be fair and transparent, we won’t win an election.
And the dems are too happy eternally finishing in 2nd to last place to actually do something about the joke htat is our electoral system.
W*nkers.
Here’s my 2008 nightmare scenario: McCain chooses Jeb Bush as a running mate, and they win. Then McCain croaks in office (he has numerous health problems) and the Bush monarchy continues. Gaaaahhhhhh!!!!
Aside from what thinks of Hillary and her policy positions, she’d be a terrible candidate for the Democrat(ic) party, no? Thinking about what would happen in New York is interesting, but it is pretty obvious what would happen in every red state and many more moderate blue ones, she’d lose to any Republican.
I need to be careful, I supported John Kerry because I thought he was ‘electable’, but Hillary seems just too polarizing. Plus her policy positions (e.g. the war) suck. I’d love another woman contender.
Giuliani will not sell; they will drag out the Rudia photos and that will be the end of him.
Wesley Clark?
As in General Wesley Clark?